NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c09927db2fbb94cb28abdcb6dd82f981fdfd8bda4014673ce981238da9f7771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Clippers, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Lakers | 66c | 5,321$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.25 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Clippers | 35c | 2,137$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.95 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clippers | 34c | 2,007$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.74 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 32c | 1,500$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Lakers | 64c | 1,082$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.63 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Clippers | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 52c | 993.82$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers | 35c | 698.72$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.55 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Lakers | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Clippers | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Lakers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Clippers | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Clippers | 33c | 98.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d9…d560backed Lakers | 58c | 88.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Clippers | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Clippers won
- Clippers vs. LakersLakers won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.