TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1200…aaf4backed No3c18,294$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes63c14,095$8,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,164.7816535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes75c13,509$10,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.088129.6%24 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes60c6,865$4,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.647436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes78c6,547$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.613636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No24c5,003$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.956883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f1…4d49backed Yes72c4,907$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.451450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes61c4,627$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.8414240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes71c4,233$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.864413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes72c3,565$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.2114947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7809…196abacked No27c3,130$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes78c3,006$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…63d2backed Yes60c2,963$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes76c2,842$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.2816746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes64c2,388$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.9513444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes60c1,849$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.642142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfe…5181backed No19c1,817$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes71c1,534$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.948630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.4922725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked No31c1,400$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes61c1,339$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.562653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+105.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes36c1,192$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.435534.5%19 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920f…ba6fbacked Yes16c1,118$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.43714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes38c1,108$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.197044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes60c1,063$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.485145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No16c911.54$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.534766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63eb…d3a6backed No1c872.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86d…ecf8backed Yes23c856.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.911030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+79.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed No48c850$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.522231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No24c837.29$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.797317.8%13 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb02…df7cbacked Yes61c817.62$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No35c800$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.5528434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes35c764.04$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.318354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe3a1…64a3backed Yes74c709.81$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes60c704.35$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4610261.8%63 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c647.19$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.191,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1312…e932backed Yes21c634.66$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.731233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes73c616.44$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.4443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes72c600$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.283369.7%23 W · 10 L+6.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+92%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes10c560.54$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.73450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+220.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d7…e99cbacked Yes70c557.6$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes76c509.99$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2928430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes28c500$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.945347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No28c499.55$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.714355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes30c497.44$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.73759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes75c471.19$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed Yes74c450.61$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.442330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No18c440$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.88142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes8c370.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.871020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…9080backed Yes10c367.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.85812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No26c366.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.555940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed No20c348.66$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.59922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e31…5571backed Yes58c345.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f22…1269backed Yes60c343.84$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes27c332.12$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.188716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No19c316.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.63030%9 W · 21 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+51.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes65c309.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.876150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1e…da91backed Yes5c288.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.94812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+134.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No17c287.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9525337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No28c285$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.116835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes31c257$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.334250%21 W · 21 L+11.9wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+178.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x094f…8796backed Yes75c256.86$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-85.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes30c250$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.251457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes59c238.41$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.872133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes49c235.86$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25ad…6b75backed Yes21c234$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes8c230.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.872321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+239.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd064…c4d1backed Yes65c202.7$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe694…7e7cbacked No28c201.39$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.551258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes69c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82fc…565cbacked Yes75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No75c195.21$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8515932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes78c192.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.721520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes42c179.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.931030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes28c179.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.783925.6%10 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed No35c178.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.21513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-62.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c176.64$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9215356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes19c173.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.143318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes39c167.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4826139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c166$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes24c166$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.495030%15 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9f…c209backed Yes78c153.02$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.971963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f4e…2b46backed Yes64c151.56$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.27560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+47.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes64c151.18$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.891060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92f0…dca2backed Yes76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes49c145.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8812556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab66…6a52backed Yes79c144.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c138.4$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.551,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc319…0e0cbacked No36c138.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.711250%6 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+86%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa0a…caf5backed Yes25c132.53$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes24c132.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.995768.4%39 W · 18 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7b1a…54febacked Yes59c129$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa06…1e0fbacked No18c126.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes9c120.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.143225%8 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c119.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4899017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes31c113.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.644358.1%25 W · 18 L+14.6wins+0.34per pick24cpaid+200.9%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x92dc…ae74backed Yes57c113.63$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes67c109.57$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0527438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5004…c07bbacked No26c108.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2167…9062backed Yes35c107.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.981735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.