Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694bb375a2c1ab7eeced24a3adc916938a8c649d421afc583de7942a79d9ac93

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,807 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	19c	900.42$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf283…937bbacked Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	8c	172.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	990	17.2%170 W · 820 L	-148.8wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	24c	127.68$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6077…0062backed Yes	18c	106.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	30c	93.56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	78c	90$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	21c	82.39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	15c	73.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	371	17.8%66 W · 305 L	-18.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6a…e7f6backed Yes	28c	72.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes	22c	54.79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	227	25.1%57 W · 170 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf077…6f77backed No	69c	48.55$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81ba…5076backed No	76c	27.39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.57	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No	67c	17.91$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.91	46	63%29 W · 17 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event