NBA · resolved market
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb27a048768bbc2ef7d896f669732f131d19cb28c4e5712616f66e53c7d9ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 79c | 3,836$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.83 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 21c | 1,681$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.63 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 20c | 1,625$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155f…c517backed No | 27c | 1,346$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.3 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 30c | 1,265$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.63 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 54c | 564.5$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.7 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 351.65$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed No | 26c | 297.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…1989backed No | 29c | 297.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 57c | 294.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 78c | 236.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 44c | 219.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 186.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked No | 15c | 178.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 79c | 174.74$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 21c | 155.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 24c | 145.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 79c | 125.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 80c | 117.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 19c | 101.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…35edbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…1880backed No | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 86.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9f…c209backed Yes | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 17c | 65.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…2586backed Yes | 78c | 63.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 27c | 53.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…9540backed Yes | 75c | 52.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…40cebacked No | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…8e02backed No | 30c | 51.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…fa34backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…f586backed Yes | 75c | 49.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…bd9ebacked Yes | 69c | 42.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…973cbacked Yes | 77c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 26c | 38.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…22bbbacked Yes | 76c | 38.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f9…21e4backed Yes | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.