Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627a5b10e35c114cd0ee6b84a5843dc0317e36f7cf8f040cf6423eb9abadb76f

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $265,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $249,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,535 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x250c…2774backed Yes	0c	11,699$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	142	4.2%6 W · 136 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes	0c	11,350$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9398…9d35backed Yes	0c	10,080$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6742…3e5bbacked Yes	1c	4,058$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77a0…8f62backed Yes	21c	3,618$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.15	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff5…1c26backed Yes	22c	2,945$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2dc…2bf2backed Yes	17c	2,928$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	46cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	2,759$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	-20%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes	20c	2,585$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.7	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No	75c	2,582$1,930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.19	77	59.7%46 W · 31 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes	19c	2,541$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.38	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed No	79c	2,309$1,821 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.05	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7aee…a444backed Yes	14c	2,218$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…d285backed Yes	29c	2,207$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.47	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes	2c	2,100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.1	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…8dc5backed Yes	1c	2,008$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…d43fbacked Yes	20c	2,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes	1c	1,813$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,646$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.59	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes	2c	1,606$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes	24c	1,596$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.86	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-33%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73c0…3733backed No	76c	1,580$1,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	4c	1,513$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.43	166	2.4%4 W · 162 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,457$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddc…5243backed Yes	3c	1,300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	3c	1,249$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked No	78c	1,194$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.27	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	7c	1,100$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+11.3wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe966…12debacked Yes	23c	1,021$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.63	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	1,016$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	349	5.7%20 W · 329 L	-25.3wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes	24c	980$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.2	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes	16c	952.07$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.55	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-4.3wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x477f…b715backed Yes	26c	925.65$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.6	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes	1c	922.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc843…20d1backed Yes	4c	904.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…9427backed No	75c	800$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes	17c	796.34$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.38	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49c…6416backed Yes	7c	775.74$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.71	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661a…e9e8backed Yes	21c	773.77$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.43	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	15c	748$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.84	237	7.2%17 W · 220 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e4…87c6backed Yes	21c	725.76$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.43	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.36per pick	52cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	8c	644.74$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.13	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	612.11$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.61	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2f…b42dbacked Yes	4c	599$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe28b…fb5fbacked No	74c	529.99$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+78.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6f…7d62backed No	79c	500$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	70cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8f…60bbbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf90…9345backed Yes	20c	497.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.57	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.35per pick	47cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc36b…6e05backed Yes	20c	495.14$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	5c	478.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.72	92	28.3%26 W · 66 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9233…79aebacked Yes	28c	478$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.84	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	3c	428.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes	25c	420$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.24per pick	46cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes	3c	417.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x388a…44bfbacked Yes	22c	416.52$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.18	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-3.3wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa32c…c374backed Yes	24c	411.3$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.59	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.26per pick	33cpaid	-78%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	8c	410.13$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+50%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c41…1b37backed Yes	25c	397.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…e5bbbacked Yes	25c	384$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e5…193bbacked Yes	25c	376$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523f…d036backed Yes	14c	365.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5a…8afbbacked Yes	27c	363.32$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb8…77d7backed Yes	4c	330.92$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a22…ee5bbacked Yes	6c	327.74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8b…1351backed No	71c	323.55$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.83	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1a…0613backed No	78c	320$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.12	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+3.1wins	+0.31per pick	59cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	119	0.8%1 W · 118 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb337…8d2dbacked Yes	22c	292.5$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.65	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x110e…03c5backed Yes	28c	286$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.08	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7beb…70aebacked Yes	22c	282.86$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.57	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa905…fd4fbacked Yes	21c	277.28$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0351…3477backed Yes	25c	273.16$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbd…3bd7backed Yes	14c	262.41$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x826a…f36bbacked Yes	24c	260$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes	23c	246.25$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.85	72	31.9%23 W · 49 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2a…384dbacked Yes	7c	240$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-67%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes	21c	238.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.11	54	61.1%33 W · 21 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No	77c	234.91$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.61	103	70.9%73 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	11c	225.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	204	22.1%45 W · 159 L	-10.9wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf164…b99cbacked No	72c	219.33$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.41	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68d2…2e32backed Yes	17c	217.69$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes	20c	215$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	31cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae6c…0328backed No	76c	209.62$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.31	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+72.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	7c	206.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes	15c	204$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	33cpaid	+92.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	70c	202.39$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.25	254	22%56 W · 198 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	75	4%3 W · 72 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…657ebacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd01…96f4backed Yes	26c	200$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	112	2.7%3 W · 109 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e0…ec38backed No	74c	200$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+41%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	27c	199.97$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.19	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf77…2791backed Yes	19c	184$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c30…576dbacked Yes	20c	183.95$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb84e…9275backed Yes	23c	181$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.63	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb03e…3686backed Yes	13c	179.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	15c	172.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.05	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	13cpaid	+190.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes	14c	165.31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	70	21.4%15 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa452…fc8abacked Yes	19c	159.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event