Token Launches · resolved market
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79f86f606a995e13997e51c1eac366143b05b2d07641012d376502c00f867d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $620,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $576,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $620,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 718 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8236…4226backed No | 5c | 37,294$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…8652backed Yes | 49c | 20,303$9,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,314.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e1…97efbacked No | 37c | 14,077$5,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,175.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…4c83backed Yes | 36c | 14,048$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,048.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 68c | 12,572$8,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,497.53 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 26c | 11,417$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,448.61 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 11c | 7,634$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 64c | 7,461$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…6f7cbacked No | 61c | 6,694$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 32c | 6,368$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…653abacked Yes | 52c | 5,976$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 40c | 5,947$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.43 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 28c | 5,877$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,205.62 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…7464backed No | 70c | 5,671$3,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,989.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.7wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed No | 77c | 5,648$4,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,324.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 49c | 5,524$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.83 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…0df6backed No | 56c | 5,459$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed No | 52c | 5,158$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5a…8afbbacked Yes | 38c | 5,112$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…f0b4backed Yes | 25c | 5,050$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,807.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…2958backed No | 75c | 4,580$3,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 38c | 4,523$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.15 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 57c | 4,376$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.52 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x08d9…933fbacked Yes | 58c | 4,324$2,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 68c | 4,291$2,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.78 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…dab5backed No | 30c | 4,214$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed Yes | 29c | 4,053$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 54c | 4,000$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.19 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 24c | 4,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 24c | 3,906$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.51 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 65c | 3,840$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.42 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 33c | 3,734$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,692$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,657.22 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 46c | 3,480$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked No | 40c | 3,466$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e19…3c43backed No | 28c | 3,411$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 56c | 3,410$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 3,388$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.57 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 71c | 3,209$2,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.09 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed No | 67c | 3,045$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.29 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bee…501cbacked No | 50c | 3,022$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…d047backed No | 40c | 2,994$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…1522backed Yes | 41c | 2,961$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked Yes | 60c | 2,877$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.62 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked No | 31c | 2,760$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.85 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 74c | 2,672$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.6 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed Yes | 32c | 2,641$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed No | 24c | 2,588$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.02 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 48c | 2,543$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.09 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…9531backed No | 73c | 2,520$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…e5dbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…c869backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0370backed No | 44c | 2,476$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +309.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 54c | 2,420$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.98 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…801ebacked No | 1c | 2,409$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 40c | 2,353$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.73 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…579cbacked Yes | 55c | 2,300$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…3ceebacked No | 45c | 2,300$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f7…5b87backed Yes | 65c | 2,284$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…c420backed Yes | 38c | 2,201$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,184$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 55c | 2,088$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.65 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 57c | 2,070$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.77 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.96 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked No | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…0de9backed No | 31c | 1,934$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 47c | 1,924$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.79 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…d410backed No | 23c | 1,911$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.62 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…9d2cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,871$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 19c | 1,797$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…9eafbacked Yes | 57c | 1,794$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 36c | 1,779$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.37 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…3e5bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,779$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 1,698$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…a548backed Yes | 42c | 1,687$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd803…f309backed No | 51c | 1,653$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 48c | 1,645$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.93 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 31c | 1,637$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.4 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…39fbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,634$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed No | 65c | 1,600$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…9a79backed Yes | 23c | 1,592$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed No | 53c | 1,546$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 42c | 1,541$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.46 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…9abbbacked Yes | 80c | 1,535$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 33c | 1,520$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.22 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…3141backed Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc703…2531backed No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…90dcbacked Yes | 66c | 1,500$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 36c | 1,466$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.83 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 41c | 1,446$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.86 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 1,438$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.87 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…c41dbacked No | 55c | 1,409$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…9ad5backed Yes | 67c | 1,385$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 35c | 1,382$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Yes | 55c | 1,378$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…6972backed No | 49c | 1,355$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 45c | 1,312$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.34 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.