Token Launches · resolved market
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6ae619c1da4042c4c8167ca433b8e2926dc34874760185bea98cde058edb5f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $233,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked No | 1c | 16,771$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 9,652$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 20c | 7,312$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.38 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 10c | 7,169$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 8c | 6,100$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…28b1backed No | 7c | 3,956$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +471.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d11…3eb3backed No | 21c | 3,907$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 8c | 3,400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…cd05backed No | 13c | 3,379$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 19c | 3,167$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 10c | 3,069$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.51 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…6c56backed No | 2c | 2,889$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 2,702$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 2,501$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…354ebacked Yes | 68c | 2,231$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 11c | 2,000$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.25 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…a85dbacked No | 5c | 1,700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…4777backed No | 12c | 1,671$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 11c | 1,667$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.04 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 2c | 1,606$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked No | 14c | 1,584$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.62 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…4530backed No | 27c | 1,500$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…6484backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 20c | 1,469$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.07 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 1,292$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 23c | 1,289$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.57 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked No | 14c | 1,169$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 2c | 1,156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…4635backed No | 8c | 1,124$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6acd…dc61backed No | 6c | 1,075$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 11c | 1,006$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…55a4backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…321dbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 20c | 999.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…2fe1backed No | 10c | 951.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 68c | 886.2$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 72c | 854.42$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…c310backed No | 2c | 851.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…6f7cbacked No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 3c | 793.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…7c46backed No | 13c | 785.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…8983backed Yes | 75c | 689.86$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…a933backed No | 5c | 670$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 80c | 669.1$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 615.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac1…513abacked No | 8c | 604.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked No | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 598.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…0a88backed No | 28c | 595.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd803…f309backed Yes | 79c | 580.13$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 78c | 577$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 22c | 557$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 22c | 555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 78c | 549$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…7163backed No | 8c | 539.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 23c | 523.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 22c | 523$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 5c | 522.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 78c | 509$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…73c4backed No | 12c | 498.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 10c | 469.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…02bebacked No | 12c | 450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…526abacked Yes | 74c | 399.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 69c | 394.36$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 26c | 384.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked No | 32c | 314.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 18c | 312.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…8318backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…b3a5backed No | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bf…1f82backed Yes | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.42per pick | 49cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed No | 15c | 292.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…b249backed Yes | 76c | 287$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…aaeabacked No | 10c | 280$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed Yes | 65c | 268.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0d…e714backed No | 9c | 265.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 5c | 261.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed No | 8c | 237.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…786bbacked No | 16c | 225$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0959…fa99backed No | 13c | 218.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 14c | 215.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 202.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b68…b1e6backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c212backed No | 8c | 176.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 73c | 168.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 14c | 159.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 20c | 154$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…3361backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…ad5dbacked No | 17c | 144.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…2dd9backed Yes | 79c | 142.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 127.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked Yes | 77c | 122.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.