Token Launches · resolved market
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2d755553df01c44370cb60d7687244d48913187063d5237e7183e707f641603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x491b…c804backed Yes | 74c | 13,136$9,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…4c83backed Yes | 77c | 6,014$4,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 28c | 4,700$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 61c | 4,508$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.54 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 50c | 4,506$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.56 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 29c | 4,248$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.98 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked No | 12c | 4,218$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 22c | 4,110$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.72 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 41c | 4,065$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.4 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,535$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 27c | 3,234$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 3c | 2,749$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 29c | 2,333$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.59 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked No | 14c | 2,196$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.69 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…6f7cbacked No | 34c | 2,136$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 23c | 2,127$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 71c | 2,037$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f6…21bebacked Yes | 55c | 2,035$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 47c | 2,004$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.24 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 12c | 2,002$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 48c | 1,697$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 65c | 1,674$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…c6c9backed Yes | 78c | 1,637$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 22c | 1,626$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…cd05backed No | 26c | 1,542$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 29c | 1,500$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked No | 29c | 1,500$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.51 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 33c | 1,446$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.04 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,420$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 44c | 1,321$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed No | 18c | 1,300$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +116%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 1,279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 40c | 1,271$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.42 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,253$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 25c | 1,179$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.91 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 56c | 1,118$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.01 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed No | 23c | 1,116$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 5c | 1,112$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 7c | 1,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…6c56backed No | 9c | 1,081$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 24c | 1,056$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked No | 12c | 1,047$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 44c | 1,022$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.8 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 7c | 1,011$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…d410backed No | 6c | 1,008$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 1,005$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…a85dbacked No | 21c | 988.81$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…f41abacked No | 32c | 985.68$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 933$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 76c | 911.24$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…bbe1backed No | 48c | 879.16$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked No | 27c | 865.25$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a58…4ababacked Yes | 50c | 861.55$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae98…210cbacked No | 59c | 847.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 53c | 844.75$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.89 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 836.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acd…dc61backed No | 16c | 791.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed No | 54c | 779.99$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 730.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 2c | 720$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…4777backed No | 28c | 711.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked No | 33c | 708.84$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…2d24backed Yes | 80c | 693.92$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed No | 42c | 692.21$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 69c | 663.16$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.14 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 658.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 7c | 651.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 24c | 634.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes | 69c | 632.1$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 36c | 628.6$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.29 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…0129backed Yes | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 33c | 600.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 7c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…90dcbacked Yes | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 35c | 563.1$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 54c | 555$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…36afbacked No | 42c | 554.59$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…70c1backed Yes | 63c | 549.6$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…81c0backed No | 41c | 539.72$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…ebc2backed No | 51c | 525$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 59c | 511.7$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…354ebacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed No | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 43c | 499.98$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked No | 2c | 495.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…4635backed No | 24c | 475$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17e…6df9backed No | 7c | 436.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed No | 3c | 430.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…dab5backed No | 27c | 421.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 26c | 399.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…7beebacked Yes | 77c | 389.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 28c | 386.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…28b1backed No | 36c | 361.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +471.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?this page
- Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.