Token Launches · resolved market
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5ea2016cdc31e521f7d330cd4db824be1cdc25099d255bce33a436496c3b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $487,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $537,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $487,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 44c | 6,652$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.7 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…f80abacked No | 26c | 6,138$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed Yes | 52c | 5,674$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.85 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…4e5cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,667$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,615.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +11,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…73dbbacked No | 28c | 5,623$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…d8c9backed Yes | 7c | 4,650$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 30cpaid | +404.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,499$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.63 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…08bcbacked Yes | 11c | 4,424$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,938.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +323.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…3d43backed Yes | 5c | 4,259$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +979.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…2c9dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,172$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,156.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +2,349.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,645$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 1c | 3,564$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,527.47 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…d87bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,352$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,219$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.88 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 44c | 3,009$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.29 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,964$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 53c | 2,957$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.38 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…ef57backed Yes | 3c | 2,925$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.61per pick | 19cpaid | +1,118.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…ee50backed Yes | 3c | 2,725$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +651.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,675$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.87 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…d4febacked Yes | 2c | 2,658$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 30cpaid | +657.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…d8febacked Yes | 2c | 2,609$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 1c | 2,562$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 72c | 2,539$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.71 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 5c | 2,515$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.29 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…5c76backed Yes | 79c | 2,379$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 40c | 2,255$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,254$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.91 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 58c | 2,126$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.92 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…bf96backed Yes | 1c | 2,112$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +3,947%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 10c | 2,062$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…19ffbacked Yes | 73c | 2,055$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f102backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…c9a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,990$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1,138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed Yes | 78c | 1,939$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.42 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3188…870bbacked No | 6c | 1,883$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.8 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4b…7e8ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,795$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked No | 39c | 1,742$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,707$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 1cpaid | +1,462.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…01c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +14,185.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed Yes | 37c | 1,694$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,665$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.82 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…4595backed Yes | 1c | 1,618$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +7,042.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,609$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.25 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…a9d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,551$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +7,603.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…f84ebacked No | 20c | 1,521$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,496$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.52 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,484$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.18 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 8c | 1,453$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.04 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,407$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.21 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,373$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.47 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed No | 49c | 1,371$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed Yes | 2c | 1,277$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +295.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 59c | 1,247$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.04 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 17c | 1,239$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2a…c1fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,214$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +297.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed No | 49c | 1,213$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,180$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.97 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…888bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,161$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 22cpaid | +704.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…7582backed No | 67c | 1,158$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 2c | 1,125$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.05 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.7 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +1,234.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…911dbacked No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…5266backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.8 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 20c | 999.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…b250backed No | 23c | 990.67$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 1c | 987$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.04 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 2c | 944.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.6 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 65c | 934.77$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.4 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed No | 34c | 868.4$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…ac58backed Yes | 42c | 850.98$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…35acbacked Yes | 56c | 823.87$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…5b2dbacked Yes | 70c | 816.43$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.99 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 24c | 771.53$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.29 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…6094backed No | 12c | 757.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 13c | 753.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 23c | 750$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 19c | 727.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…e065backed No | 30c | 699.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 57c | 611.45$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a1…5e8fbacked Yes | 65c | 580.49$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 555.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e8…0e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 548.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…32a2backed Yes | 3c | 540$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…3881backed No | 11c | 536.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 49c | 533.5$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.89 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…bbccbacked Yes | 73c | 532.49$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…9337backed No | 67c | 531.47$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 44c | 525.06$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.16 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed No | 6c | 517.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed Yes | 2c | 503.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +489.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 21c | 469.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 14c | 465.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.