Wallet 0xdf18…af99
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xdf181f987463ef4f6ea76b94f405271143d9af99
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 21
- What they are worth now
- $1,598
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 32
bought for $1,698
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 21, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?backed Yes | 1,467shares | 15c | 14c | $213 |
| Market 0xd912…ee84backed outcome 0 | 1,571shares | 14c | 14c | $212 |
| Market 0x3b01…606cbacked outcome 1 | 174.83shares | 92c | 95c | $167 |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No | 132.97shares | 90c | 89c | $118 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?backed Yes | 633.53shares | 24c | 19c | $117 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?backed No | 130.17shares | 77c | 83c | $108 |
| Market 0x1448…92fcbacked outcome 0 | 635.31shares | 16c | 16c | $98 |
| Market 0xd8e7…3662backed outcome 0 | 416.67shares | 24c | 24c | $98 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?backed Yes | 1,111shares | 9c | 9c | $94 |
| Market 0x67a6…7905backed outcome 0 | 1,375shares | 8c | 7c | $89 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 32. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · resolved | 100shares | 30c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x9322…d6b9backed outcome 0 | 51.28shares | 39c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-08-14?backed No · resolved | 46.51shares | 43c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0xfb77…723cbacked outcome 0 | 45.45shares | 44c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x2909…20d9backed outcome 0 | 44.44shares | 45c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 3 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 1,079
- Categories scored
- 23
- Categories below 50
- 12
Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).
Best Category Bundesliga at 60 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 39.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 270 | 55.2%149 W · 121 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
La Liga — the 270 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fifa International — the 164 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Premier League — the 108 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Europa Conference League — the 99 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Champions League — the 79 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other European Leagues — the 48 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Serie Alast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Serie A — the 47 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bundesliga — the 41 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA — the 41 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UFC — the 40 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NHL — the 35 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ligue 1 — the 34 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
South American Leagues — the 24 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mls — the 16 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Asian League Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Asian League — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| MLBlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB — the 5 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Euroleague — the 5 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.