TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Capitals, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,515,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,515,480 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,530 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Flyers46c400,100$183,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216,903.7119848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Capitals54c134,171$72,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,794.2540351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Capitals54c112,592$60,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,652.5467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Capitals54c69,894$37,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,742.4951550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Capitals55c67,655$37,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,210.2536748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Flyers45c60,000$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,000.2348545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals54c25,760$13,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,899.51,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Capitals56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,199.65261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Flyers45c18,403$8,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,185.848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Capitals55c18,182$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Capitals30c15,331$4,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,567.6912838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Flyers46c14,799$6,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,998.261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Capitals55c12,740$7,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,006.733554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Flyers44c11,548$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,447.9247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Flyers46c10,989$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,988.8732151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Capitals54c9,960$5,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,345.9861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Capitals54c9,260$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed Capitals30c8,021$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3691428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Capitals55c7,273$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.0140356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers65c6,896$4,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.91,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Capitals56c6,782$3,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,784.651,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Capitals52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12019051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Capitals6c5,998$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.364912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Flyers71c5,391$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.3552172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Capitals56c5,250$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.53956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Capitals55c5,249$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.6814837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Flyers44c5,010$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+107.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cea…2c92backed Flyers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Flyers44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8601…fa87backed Capitals53c4,100$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a42…1ae5backed Flyers47c3,800$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8a…3652backed Flyers47c3,750$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc930…e562backed Capitals53c3,750$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Capitals55c3,705$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.458544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Capitals55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Capitals52c3,599$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.3560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Capitals56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Flyers44c3,333$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.3110850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Flyers44c3,330$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.6925447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers68c3,287$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Flyers47c3,131$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.752748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Capitals55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9968449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals55c2,990$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.551,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a17…1b84backed Capitals55c2,746$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a5…a6e0backed Flyers45c2,626$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+100.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc8b…56a5backed Capitals55c2,570$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Flyers44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40084953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Capitals55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…fbeabacked Capitals55c2,427$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dbb…2836backed Capitals54c2,412$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a1c…a99ebacked Flyers45c2,372$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Flyers46c2,348$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.3486549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Capitals36c2,306$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.371,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flyers47c2,200$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5b…88acbacked Flyers45c2,153$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.352339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Flyers45c2,001$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.1122946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Capitals29c1,999$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.3239344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb15d…dcc9backed Flyers48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7e…6222backed Capitals52c1,995$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…85b3backed Capitals52c1,995$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.41040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…66ffbacked Flyers48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf223…6e56backed Flyers48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37a…cf75backed Capitals52c1,995$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.41250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f80…7d4fbacked Flyers48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.41181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+52.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x140c…74ecbacked Flyers48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.41450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6615…89cbbacked Capitals52c1,995$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x535e…43f9backed Capitals52c1,995$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1763…7756backed Capitals52c1,995$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…8756backed Flyers48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c97…386bbacked Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5a…ba6dbacked Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa29b…bec6backed Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd5…72c8backed Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df4…bd7abacked Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8185…7a8cbacked Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ed…46b2backed Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4071…d7a4backed Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd55d…e474backed Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f61…035fbacked Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0da…099cbacked Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122a…ec56backed Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb66…7d82backed Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee9…c8e3backed Flyers48c1,990$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…2ce1backed Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4392…41b8backed Capitals52c1,990$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaec…ae33backed Flyers48c1,985$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.21172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d81…d4d9backed Flyers48c1,985$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.21346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd27…6629backed Capitals52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.21080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5800…566fbacked Flyers48c1,985$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.21080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa241…c014backed Capitals52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a2…9784backed Capitals52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a5…aaa7backed Capitals52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.21050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca88…d861backed Flyers48c1,985$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.21250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658a…614dbacked Capitals52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.121258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…afa2backed Flyers48c1,985$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0235…2aa7backed Flyers48c1,980$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…b518backed Flyers48c1,980$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1430…164bbacked Capitals52c1,980$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe423…c5bbbacked Capitals52c1,980$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2cf6…a8bebacked Flyers48c1,980$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.