NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd491a3c09c0f797865fbcede9aef76458653d65406a0d2a1688d5dff3d0610a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,771 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb28…598fbacked Over | 55c | 7,900$4,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,345 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e0…4659backed Under | 45c | 7,900$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,345 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 55c | 3,637$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…53f9backed Under | 45c | 3,636$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…9383backed Over | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,096$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.64 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 1,305$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.19 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 1,290$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.24 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 49c | 615.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 46c | 536.97$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.73 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 45c | 526.38$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.79 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 54c | 461.33$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 227.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Under | 46c | 223.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.92 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 220.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 55c | 220.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 218.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 39c | 199.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 53c | 189.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 188.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Over | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…5e90backed Under | 45c | 157$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…e3b1backed Under | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…e9bfbacked Under | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…ecc1backed Under | 46c | 133$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Under | 47c | 95.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 91.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 46c | 88.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 57c | 83.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 31c | 82.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a6…15c0backed Over | 56c | 76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 75.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 51c | 74.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 55c | 72.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…2ae5backed Over | 54c | 63.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…1e14backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c33…1934backed Over | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 61.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…375cbacked Over | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc4…d5b6backed Over | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 55c | 47.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2f…c1c9backed Over | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 45.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 41c | 45.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 39.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…2f38backed Over | 51c | 39.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe69f…c617backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Under | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36c…f8b3backed Over | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Under | 46c | 30.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…a106backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9e…790abacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…cdd6backed Over | 55c | 29.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…e893backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 51c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…e5d4backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…e7f9backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…0836backed Over | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3af…286ebacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…ac7abacked Over | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…d991backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 54c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…e263backed Over | 55c | 21.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…a582backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3428…7878backed Over | 55c | 19.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 54c | 18.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.