NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05d2a7d0cddb991ed586512f16ce5801eb02518889bd80869cd179cd089a2c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,235 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x027a…f23abacked Under | 26c | 6,197$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Under | 27c | 4,395$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 73c | 2,248$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.89 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…7162backed Over | 77c | 1,738$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 72c | 1,500$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 26c | 1,258$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.87 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 74c | 965.24$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 21c | 895.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 74c | 825.12$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 79c | 750.22$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 11c | 650.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 80c | 567.59$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 73c | 503$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 24c | 441$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Over | 75c | 346.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 74c | 334.22$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 74c | 333.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 75c | 328.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 74c | 328$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 12c | 240.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 21c | 187.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 74c | 164.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 74c | 135.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…1eccbacked Under | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 24c | 111.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 80c | 87.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 72c | 80.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 75c | 64.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 24c | 60.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe436…159fbacked Over | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…0a92backed Over | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 68c | 28.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…84c7backed Over | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Over | 74c | 26.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…ea99backed Over | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 74c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Over | 79c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.