NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65a5839ecf5e5c7bc0746857f8d9badc3e1f81c85ed49fde5c39102687911f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,652 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 4,848$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.76 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…f23abacked Under | 58c | 4,500$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Under | 58c | 1,685$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 43c | 999.98$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 57c | 691.05$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.93 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 528$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 57c | 437.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 79c | 381.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 359.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 43c | 319.01$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 40c | 251.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 238.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 57c | 238$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Under | 58c | 174.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 43c | 139.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 20c | 114.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 59c | 87.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 72c | 64.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 30c | 60.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…d8fdbacked Under | 79c | 52.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 63c | 47.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 40c | 44.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 43c | 44.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 58c | 43.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 39c | 34.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 43c | 33.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Over | 31c | 32.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 43c | 29.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991c…31dcbacked Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af5…4731backed Over | 45c | 27.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…0debbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…b3a5backed Over | 45c | 24.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40df…9cb3backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 74c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.