NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c5bc47838584e8f4f4ef382a32fadab922c84cfd2a7a0e561f855ddcb27419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,632 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6f1…d7c3backed Under | 78c | 2,190$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…5ca8backed Under | 78c | 1,600$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0023…3073backed Under | 77c | 1,070$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…336abacked Under | 77c | 988$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…e2b0backed Under | 77c | 422$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 24c | 383.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…e717backed Under | 76c | 328.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…e102backed Over | 25c | 123$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…7adabacked Over | 24c | 121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0f…a189backed Over | 25c | 113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 24c | 112.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…7d6abacked Over | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…1742backed Over | 24c | 106$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…2aebbacked Over | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…14eebacked Over | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…3e25backed Over | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…f383backed Over | 25c | 93.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1134…90f1backed Over | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…4ce2backed Under | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc753…efeabacked Under | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…7ddebacked Under | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b1…3676backed Under | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 23c | 44.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed Under | 76c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dd14backed Under | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…64c7backed Under | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…257cbacked Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…ef94backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…02b7backed Under | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…6f2bbacked Under | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acb…20d3backed Under | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…e7a5backed Under | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…35eabacked Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 29.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…882fbacked Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…1095backed Under | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…f6c2backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…486dbacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ff9fbacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…6d90backed Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…86bdbacked Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…6935backed Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…f6b0backed Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…5019backed Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…f665backed Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…8a7dbacked Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…4659backed Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…ec1cbacked Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503b…c1b3backed Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…ccb6backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0350…2318backed Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…e66abacked Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…c572backed Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8a…0407backed Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a2…e35ebacked Under | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…6dd7backed Under | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…065bbacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…45c8backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.