NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9dcb6228d3e466d3512ffa2ca05f50be0ffc468a9ccf1d88f9f08620e58d9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Capitals, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,443 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Capitals | 33c | 3,020$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.39 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Flyers | 67c | 1,596$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.46 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers | 67c | 1,195$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.26 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Flyers | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Capitals | 33c | 911.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 66c | 684.23$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Capitals | 33c | 303.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Flyers | 59c | 300.16$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…6730backed Capitals | 30c | 277$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Capitals | 33c | 274.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…ae27backed Flyers | 70c | 272$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Flyers | 59c | 271.87$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Capitals | 42c | 261.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…99b6backed Capitals | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…ea6dbacked Flyers | 70c | 258$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Capitals | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…c307backed Flyers | 70c | 248$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…b539backed Flyers | 70c | 244$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c6…eaefbacked Flyers | 70c | 241$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…cdcbbacked Flyers | 70c | 231$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…73f1backed Flyers | 70c | 228$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…c69cbacked Flyers | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…98c5backed Flyers | 70c | 219$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0f…cf1abacked Flyers | 70c | 218$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…d8c7backed Capitals | 30c | 214$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…c54dbacked Capitals | 30c | 205$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b29…3d3ebacked Capitals | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…642cbacked Capitals | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…f48dbacked Capitals | 30c | 197$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…bb9cbacked Capitals | 30c | 194$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…1b27backed Capitals | 30c | 194$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469d…f659backed Capitals | 30c | 187$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…0630backed Capitals | 30c | 187$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…45dfbacked Capitals | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…33ebbacked Flyers | 70c | 178$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…954bbacked Flyers | 70c | 174$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dc…d41dbacked Flyers | 70c | 172$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…64f9backed Flyers | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f0…cf9ebacked Capitals | 30c | 154$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…d1aebacked Capitals | 30c | 149$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e81dbacked Capitals | 30c | 133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…0326backed Capitals | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Capitals | 43c | 124$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Flyers | 68c | 118.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 70c | 114.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Flyers | 61c | 114.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flyers | 69c | 101.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Capitals | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 71c | 89.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 40c | 87.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Capitals | 34c | 81.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Capitals | 32c | 77.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Capitals | 33c | 75.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 69c | 74.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Capitals | 32c | 72.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Flyers | 71c | 70.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4f…4d73backed Capitals | 34c | 59.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 68c | 51.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Flyers | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…c7babacked Capitals | 34c | 49.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Capitals | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Capitals | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Flyers | 68c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 46c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flyers | 69c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.