TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Wild vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wildof Wild, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$935,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $935,877 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 610 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Golden Knights49c164,593$81,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,421.8756152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Golden Knights50c127,557$63,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,778.341464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Wild50c120,000$60,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,500.148545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Golden Knights0c102,817$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8230944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Wild51c86,043$43,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,160.9519848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Wild50c55,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,5003262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Wild50c53,506$26,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,752.981,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights50c51,262$25,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,457.391,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Wild51c36,811$18,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,072.2541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Golden Knights49c35,264$17,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,279.1340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wild50c25,104$12,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,675.871,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Golden Knights49c18,888$9,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,255.0921850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wild50c18,634$9,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,305.391,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wild50c17,850$8,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,925.9561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Wild51c15,949$8,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,815.3328251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Wild50c15,000$7,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,500.5686852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Wild50c14,692$7,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,346.0127048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Wild50c13,992$6,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,995.8261748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Wild51c10,760$5,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,310.7643456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Wild53c10,185$5,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.674553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Wild50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Wild50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Golden Knights50c9,168$4,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.93554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wild50c7,510$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,755.1261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Golden Knights50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Golden Knights50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Golden Knights7c6,918$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.2939344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights50c6,500$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2501,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Golden Knights51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.910145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Golden Knights50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00015145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights51c5,824$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.0540356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Wild51c5,557$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.0275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Wild71c5,480$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.7315057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights47c5,279$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.221,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Wild51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Golden Knights50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wild50c4,888$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,443.845751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Golden Knights50c4,381$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.3715054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Wild53c4,085$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.7223047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Golden Knights51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Wild50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Golden Knights50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wild51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.7885250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Golden Knights0c3,863$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Golden Knights51c3,779$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.2222550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Golden Knights47c3,099$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.6162951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Golden Knights51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Golden Knights51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Golden Knights51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9131550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Golden Knights12c2,900$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9327334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights46c2,869$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.822,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wild52c2,675$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.681,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Wild79c2,624$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.9757157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f69…23cbbacked Golden Knights3c2,533$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4311127%30 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Golden Knights50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Wild50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2504047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Wild49c2,468$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.4333652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights50c2,375$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.7460249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Golden Knights51c2,373$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.9317442.5%74 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights50c2,227$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.451,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21fb…fd64backed Golden Knights49c2,102$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Golden Knights50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Golden Knights49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Golden Knights50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights47c1,967$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.673,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked Golden Knights51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Wild51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.8414654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Wild51c1,960$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.53545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7baa…10f1backed Golden Knights50c1,921$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Golden Knights50c1,813$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.6322747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2002…de36backed Wild50c1,736$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.112458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Golden Knights49c1,705$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.3248050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Golden Knights50c1,678$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8393237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Golden Knights10c1,673$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2321555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Wild49c1,583$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.38450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Wild50c1,460$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73036349%178 W · 185 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ff…24e3backed Golden Knights49c1,459$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7153743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Golden Knights51c1,430$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.344551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00b6…e4e1backed Golden Knights3c1,400$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.42922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Golden Knights48c1,364$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.5529146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Golden Knights50c1,337$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.0445749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Wild49c1,320$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.8662249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Wild50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60022352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Golden Knights50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Golden Knights48c1,152$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.841,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Golden Knights3c1,111$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.334912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights49c1,111$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.3591945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights49c1,100$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Golden Knights49c1,010$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.910158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Golden Knights51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5109853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Golden Knights1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Golden Knights51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51026551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Golden Knights49c980$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.211243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Golden Knights51c931.07$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.273354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Golden Knights49c918.17$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.95046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdd…b617backed Golden Knights51c889.94$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.871435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wild50c861.18$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.652,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Wild53c860.23$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.044548.9%22 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Golden Knights45c804.02$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.3395049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.