Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa67027b6cf8e30cb9e69c7fa2b661bc599cc6a5b3a5180a91a59aa698a978557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 14,691$3,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,896.07 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 11,774$8,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 73c | 5,479$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.45 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 5,087$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Over | 17c | 4,348$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.74 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 3,435$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.85 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 20c | 2,609$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.16 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 73c | 1,326$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.4 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 24c | 1,276$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.81 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 63c | 719.38$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 79c | 678.73$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 74c | 630.87$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 602.38$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 27c | 547.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Over | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 467$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 73c | 420$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 345.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 74c | 304.68$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e047backed Over | 25c | 232$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 200.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 74c | 169.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 36c | 165.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 30c | 162.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 26c | 157.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 73c | 97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 69c | 85.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 33c | 65.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 74c | 54.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 72c | 52.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 52.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…ed01backed Over | 22c | 48.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 72c | 45.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 74c | 42.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 76c | 38.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 76c | 36.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…aad9backed Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 76c | 32.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 71c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Over | 39c | 26.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 75c | 24.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 72c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 74c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa06…1e0fbacked Under | 73c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 74c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 74c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Under | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.