Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05cf39b19bac9300474663baa6e2a85426c48274931a733d978a34e2029a807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 593.13$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 485.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 74c | 463.51$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 71c | 420.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 4c | 374.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 26c | 352.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 29c | 294$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 189.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 71c | 140.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Over | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Over | 72c | 138.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 73c | 83.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 73c | 63.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 27c | 54.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 73c | 45.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Over | 74c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 72c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c2…2effbacked Over | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.