Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0da20bcc6c61562a70606e7e0de9d53093771e9819c1d5ffb0981ecdbc07a662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FSV Mainz 05of FC St. Pauli 1910, 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f45…8740backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 1,079$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e84cbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 1,053$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…1e55backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 977$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…e78fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 5c | 953$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…b9abbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 5c | 951$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…54b0backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 939$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ae…56b8backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 910$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…a781backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 899$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe755…1528backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 889$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…37babacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 888$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf001…6779backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 827$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 4c | 238.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.