Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7db280ce45fb9d3c0e29e649c1876268ccd785f54488415a9a647ba40ca7676a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 2,776$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,782$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 39c | 1,272$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.79 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab5…2663backed Yes | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 54c | 739.47$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.16 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 46c | 736.64$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.8 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 46c | 717.05$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 642.76$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 46c | 642.17$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.77 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 46c | 458.48$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 54c | 446.3$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.3 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed No | 44c | 284.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 51c | 271.83$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 46c | 261.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 29c | 204.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 44c | 144.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 46c | 127.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 68c | 109.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 44c | 104.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…ef5ebacked Yes | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked No | 49c | 99.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 63c | 84.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 54c | 80.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 45c | 79.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 53c | 75.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…2766backed Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Yes | 33c | 64.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 53c | 61.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 55c | 60.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 41c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 55c | 54.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 47c | 51.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 30c | 50.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e047backed Yes | 38c | 50.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 45c | 49.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 46c | 34.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…ebb0backed Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 63c | 26.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 72c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed No | 52c | 24.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab13…af17backed Yes | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…0e83backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 67c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed No | 74c | 15.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.