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NHL · resolved market

Panthers vs. Blue Jackets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jacketsof Panthers, Blue Jackets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,263,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,263,357 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Blue Jackets50c155,883$78,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,441.3167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Panthers49c117,820$57,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,240.321,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Panthers50c107,774$53,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,368.515054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Blue Jackets52c80,699$41,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,725.6541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Panthers50c80,114$40,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,019.915046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Blue Jackets52c71,047$36,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,102.6248545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b37…3b3ebacked Panthers49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,499.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Panthers48c38,888$18,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,66656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blue Jackets51c38,058$19,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,806.141,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Panthers49c23,145$11,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,453.7545751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Blue Jackets52c16,122$8,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,762.1740356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jackets51c14,000$7,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8201,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Blue Jackets52c13,876$7,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,660.714553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jackets51c12,500$6,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,1251,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Blue Jackets51c11,765$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,764.7150049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Panthers49c10,191$4,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,993.69548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Blue Jackets51c10,112$5,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,954.764551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Panthers48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8002763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Panthers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.933661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Blue Jackets51c9,645$4,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,716.8243456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Blue Jackets52c9,211$4,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,459.431,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Panthers50c9,000$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,47015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Panthers49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Panthers49c7,761$3,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.279350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Blue Jackets51c7,685$3,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,765.6586852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe1…ea1abacked Blue Jackets52c6,749$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,230.481266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Blue Jackets51c6,375$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,123.7528340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Panthers9c6,306$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.9839344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Blue Jackets55c6,009$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,709.2185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Panthers49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Blue Jackets51c5,656$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.4421755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Panthers48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Blue Jackets51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Blue Jackets51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4504949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Panthers47c4,114$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.6263249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Panthers48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.9339752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Panthers48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.91,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Panthers4c3,924$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.87258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Blue Jackets51c3,921$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.2952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Blue Jackets52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Panthers48c3,840$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.23141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Panthers48c3,776$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.487659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Panthers3c3,770$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.782043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Panthers48c3,333$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.8491945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Blue Jackets67c3,304$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.342,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Blue Jackets50c3,303$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.52,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Panthers48c3,125$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Blue Jackets53c3,000$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4254450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Panthers48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Panthers48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9727048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Panthers48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9322747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Blue Jackets50c3,000$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.9360249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Panthers48c2,896$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.044240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Blue Jackets51c2,750$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.544551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Panthers7c2,637$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Blue Jackets51c2,614$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.611,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Panthers32c2,575$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.0595049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Panthers1c2,545$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.363342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blue Jackets51c2,500$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Panthers6c2,308$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.313751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Panthers48c2,200$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Panthers4c2,004$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9054418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Blue Jackets51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99cd…b5ffbacked Blue Jackets52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeec9…c232backed Panthers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+50.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Blue Jackets50c2,000$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.9430552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd91…c360backed Panthers48c1,995$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf77…8d0dbacked Blue Jackets52c1,995$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.61250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2622…0e8cbacked Blue Jackets52c1,990$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4db…5d76backed Blue Jackets52c1,990$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e8f…9c4bbacked Blue Jackets52c1,990$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0926…4bf5backed Panthers48c1,990$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x992d…51c6backed Panthers48c1,990$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ca…c389backed Panthers48c1,990$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1107…97d2backed Blue Jackets52c1,985$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+67.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf10b…2bb2backed Blue Jackets52c1,985$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+48.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51fc…9c44backed Panthers48c1,985$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf045…bc55backed Panthers48c1,985$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd133…6ed4backed Blue Jackets52c1,985$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ae…a2c1backed Panthers48c1,985$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2434…5cc9backed Blue Jackets52c1,980$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+59.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b8…f9aebacked Panthers48c1,980$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…0f94backed Blue Jackets52c1,980$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f1…5ecfbacked Blue Jackets52c1,980$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46df…e8c4backed Panthers48c1,980$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd52c…7645backed Panthers48c1,980$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1c…7c1abacked Blue Jackets52c1,975$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa6b…9752backed Panthers48c1,975$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9481020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8225…c796backed Blue Jackets52c1,975$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3d…d89abacked Panthers48c1,975$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9481338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa0…6211backed Blue Jackets52c1,970$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x517a…a26fbacked Panthers48c1,970$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b1b0backed Blue Jackets52c1,970$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0c…b80abacked Panthers48c1,970$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+52.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc979…442cbacked Blue Jackets52c1,965$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.21080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+66.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf8f…e096backed Panthers48c1,965$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe99a…b780backed Blue Jackets52c1,965$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f2…b9b7backed Panthers48c1,965$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.2825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6150…56a1backed Blue Jackets52c1,955$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f09…aa14backed Panthers48c1,955$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.4825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.