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NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Canadiens, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,193,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,193,464 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 759 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Senators61c328,555$201,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,936.3667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Senators62c274,402$171,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,362.5315054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens38c160,856$60,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,298.021,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Canadiens38c94,420$35,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,434.7914650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Canadiens36c55,600$20,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,583.9648545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Canadiens37c51,979$19,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,680.6161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens37c48,328$18,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,290.961,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canadiens38c36,963$13,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,968.091,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Senators64c34,750$22,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,239.8847951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Canadiens38c32,777$12,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,429.8832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Canadiens36c31,655$11,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,261.6310840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Canadiens36c30,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,199.9622443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Canadiens40c27,706$11,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,623.85639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Senators64c26,500$16,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,959.8226058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Canadiens37c24,030$8,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,138.95149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Canadiens39c18,000$6,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,000.7661748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Canadiens38c17,102$6,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,687.442429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x74e5…6f4ebacked Canadiens37c15,060$5,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,487.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Canadiens37c13,515$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,514.9532151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Canadiens37c12,500$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,849.9813948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Senators64c11,485$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,349.9645751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens38c10,179$3,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,271.248845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Canadiens38c10,160$3,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,312.6128251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Canadiens37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300.33262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Senators62c10,000$6,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.3915431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Canadiens36c9,797$3,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,234.141163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Senators64c9,375$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens37c9,000$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6701,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Canadiens40c7,200$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.992748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Canadiens37c7,051$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,442.1918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…a339backed Canadiens38c7,003$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens36c6,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.9933151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Senators65c5,925$3,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,851.230348.8%148 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Senators64c5,782$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7008748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens37c5,317$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,374.832,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Canadiens37c5,174$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.6130259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Canadiens38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Canadiens40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.2413333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Senators64c4,688$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Senators18c4,678$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.5339344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens46c4,628$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.863,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Senators65c4,500$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.4989249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Senators63c4,335$2,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.741,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Senators50c4,028$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.7215145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Canadiens36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,56039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Senators60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9930552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Canadiens39c4,000$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.760249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Canadiens36c3,971$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.048056.3%45 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Canadiens37c3,914$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.511957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Canadiens40c3,713$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.513147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Senators60c3,699$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.91,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Senators63c3,678$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.273956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Canadiens38c3,500$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,17025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens36c3,438$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.242,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Canadiens38c3,256$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.9440152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Senators77c3,239$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.951,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Senators64c3,126$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Canadiens36c2,930$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.2327448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Canadiens37c2,850$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.874738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Senators47c2,620$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.314259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Canadiens39c2,588$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.7121849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Canadiens37c2,501$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.6322946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Canadiens40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Senators64c2,500$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.421,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens37c2,500$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.570249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Senators60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.992045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a17…1b84backed Senators62c2,421$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Senators64c2,309$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.171,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Senators22c2,172$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.4482043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dc…ab58backed Canadiens38c2,138$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.75846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Canadiens36c1,900$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Canadiens36c1,817$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.0113850.7%70 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Senators56c1,765$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.81,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Canadiens36c1,749$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.0751550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3b…3f07backed Canadiens28c1,698$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.491526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Canadiens25c1,691$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.92650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+93.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Canadiens37c1,690$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.721,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Senators58c1,662$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.0756649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Canadiens69c1,587$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.8352172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Senators64c1,565$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Canadiens60c1,532$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ff…24e3backed Canadiens41c1,512$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.23743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Canadiens38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93012646.8%59 W · 67 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Canadiens37c1,427$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.7220552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Canadiens40c1,415$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.8528745.3%130 W · 157 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Canadiens37c1,411$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.0815651.3%80 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Senators64c1,406$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9005949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Canadiens36c1,390$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.928152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b7…1dd8backed Canadiens37c1,380$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x688c…2482backed Canadiens37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Canadiens39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.054753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Canadiens77c1,200$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4221856.4%123 W · 95 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e09…1c3fbacked Canadiens42c1,180$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.899153.8%49 W · 42 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Canadiens39c1,141$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.8343548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Canadiens38c1,133$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.2566552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Canadiens37c1,128$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.5431753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Senators64c1,111$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.0410850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Canadiens38c1,082$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.6336948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f8…dc5dbacked Canadiens37c1,081$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.484163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Senators1c1,065$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.