NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a3f61535a79203ccd34187726dc4d12fccc1a5ace9c0a8fd6cf3cd1d9a2319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,497 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae5…f4cabacked Under | 0c | 8,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Under | 20c | 5,250$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 14c | 1,811$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.7 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 13c | 1,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 15c | 780$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 22c | 531.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 78c | 398.4$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…5c77backed Under | 15c | 355.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 80c | 333.24$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 313.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Under | 15c | 183.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 14c | 176.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 79c | 155$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 79c | 106.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 15c | 105.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…6c03backed Under | 20c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Under | 15c | 73.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 18c | 64.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Under | 24c | 41.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SenatorsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.