NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c375daaf6de4bd3f7bfe247c14a759c64f758b2c8dcde9bf94e93f65cd187c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,562 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 21c | 801$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 78c | 556.25$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…f48dbacked Over | 28c | 471$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 69c | 470.44$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4903…0242backed Over | 29c | 403$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…8394backed Over | 29c | 397$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 31c | 387.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…97dfbacked Over | 29c | 379$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…56d0backed Over | 29c | 352$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…39eabacked Over | 29c | 334$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…c69cbacked Over | 28c | 319$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…c605backed Over | 29c | 296$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…66b9backed Over | 28c | 276$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0697…28afbacked Under | 71c | 274$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…e540backed Under | 71c | 269$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 80c | 257.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1d…9dadbacked Under | 71c | 256$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…c54dbacked Under | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…7ba8backed Under | 72c | 231$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…99b6backed Under | 71c | 230$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…07a2backed Under | 72c | 226$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…cea5backed Under | 72c | 223$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…5306backed Under | 71c | 212$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…6844backed Under | 71c | 205$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…7385backed Under | 72c | 204$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…0326backed Over | 29c | 204$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…6bddbacked Under | 71c | 188$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3972backed Under | 71c | 185$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…c5eebacked Under | 72c | 182$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…1666backed Under | 71c | 166$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…7a87backed Under | 71c | 156$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…9914backed Under | 71c | 156$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 31c | 120.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 31c | 97.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…9a56backed Over | 29c | 97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 69c | 86.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…3e45backed Over | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed Under | 70c | 47.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 31c | 32.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 69c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 66c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 7.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SenatorsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.