Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b109ccb6b61d6122d3f2c532d7aa6f7bbfdd9056d6581903489b9f7311c094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 29c | 20,082$5,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,884.46 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 6,036$4,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 71c | 3,459$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.97 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 2,597$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 70c | 2,203$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.97 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 71c | 994.89$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.52 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 815.72$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.13 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 80c | 620.85$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 30c | 479$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Under | 72c | 469.46$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 71c | 408.91$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 403.76$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 36c | 400.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 22c | 399.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 70c | 398.79$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 71c | 275.82$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 71c | 204.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 71c | 148.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…cc6bbacked Under | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 30c | 118.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 71c | 106.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 71c | 103.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 19c | 92.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Under | 71c | 85.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 55c | 84.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 71c | 84.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 56c | 70.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…2482backed Under | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 71c | 68.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 72c | 68.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Under | 72c | 66.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 72c | 64.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 58.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 71c | 58.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Under | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 51.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 57c | 49.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 72c | 43.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 71c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 71c | 41.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Under | 72c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Over | 30c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Under | 71c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 53c | 27.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…dfaebacked Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 70c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 71c | 26.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 71c | 22.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed Under | 71c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…79f4backed Under | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 72c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 72c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 72c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed Under | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 71c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.