Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3621cf1ea0daf8d5b9cd0e05ee1bfe4800f5f8fbb81e141134a275a0e815b4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 51c | 12,927$6,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,551.57 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 4,893$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 49c | 3,155$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.19 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 2,213$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,047$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.96 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 1,098$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.19 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 850.39$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.6 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Under | 50c | 823.39$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 52c | 747.06$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 727.4$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Under | 49c | 721$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 74c | 675$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 540$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.8 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 520.74$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.37 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 418.24$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 413.78$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.31 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 17c | 393.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 334.17$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 50c | 296.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.76 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 40c | 289.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 49c | 279.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 230.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 15c | 221.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 51c | 197.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 157.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 155.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 29c | 151.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f19fbacked Under | 51c | 147.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 51c | 145.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 48c | 144.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7c83backed Over | 51c | 143.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 49c | 129$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 50c | 114.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 51c | 108.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Over | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 50c | 77.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 49c | 73.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 50c | 70.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 48c | 66.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 63.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 50c | 61.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…b968backed Under | 50c | 54.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 51.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 42c | 50.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 49c | 49.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…ef23backed Over | 50c | 42.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 48c | 40.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 50c | 38.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ff…d0dfbacked Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 50c | 37.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…5090backed Under | 51c | 34.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 50c | 32.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 42c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 48c | 30.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 50c | 30.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…0483backed Over | 51c | 27.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Under | 50c | 25.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 64c | 23.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 70c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.