Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ac394697a787590ca7851b47fbd90707dbfd609bd8c85b9df4a6e3c2ffa29e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 2,108$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,506$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,227$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.66 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 44c | 997.73$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.73 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 22c | 476.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 57c | 446.7$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.62 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 405.86$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 43c | 308.77$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 47c | 243.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 57c | 236.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 178.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 43c | 144.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 32c | 139.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked No | 45c | 126.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 66c | 82.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Yes | 37c | 50.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Yes | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 43c | 34.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 32.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Yes | 57c | 32.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e083backed Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 40c | 27.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.