Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb643d3590ad80f63a562ca784eb0acd03af7815c2748105d58247f2adfd4c2f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba0…e885backed Under | 23c | 4,855$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 3,600$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.63 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 1,401$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Over | 77c | 1,282$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 20c | 766.63$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 70c | 484.42$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.15 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 457.14$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 57c | 437$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.57 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 398.83$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.14 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Over | 77c | 384.23$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 50c | 214.81$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 23c | 139.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 52c | 97.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 48c | 78.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 61c | 45.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 45.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 76c | 40.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b81fbacked Over | 77c | 31.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 66c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 62c | 20.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.