TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,080,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,080,356 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Heat48c575,743$276,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299,444.3187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks52c358,575$186,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186,402.681,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bucks52c127,679$66,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,392.9566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat49c52,607$25,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,819.41,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks50c29,107$14,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,601.991,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Bucks53c26,249$13,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,911.8138253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Bucks53c25,580$13,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,430.49053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Bucks44c23,000$10,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,12040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks51c20,000$10,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,256.221,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks51c15,812$8,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,047.079,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks52c15,000$7,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,798.2348343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Heat48c10,471$5,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.8839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bucks50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.6977348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Heat53c9,523$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,523.268838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks53c9,386$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,963.221,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks51c8,682$4,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,416.122,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Heat50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat49c6,956$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,552.244,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Bucks53c6,796$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.98154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat47c6,154$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.064,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bucks52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks48c5,953$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Bucks48c5,514$2,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.7270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat50c5,000$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.571,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.982,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Heat49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6726637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks50c4,025$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Bucks53c4,000$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.8164651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Heat50c3,882$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,94137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Heat52c3,815$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.293860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bucks52c3,804$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.862,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat49c3,559$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.388,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Bucks52c3,333$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.1614753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat47c3,219$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.413,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Bucks50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat49c2,871$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.414,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks54c2,660$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.141,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks51c2,500$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.363,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Heat51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Heat49c2,449$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.1349246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Heat65c2,317$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.1811142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Bucks49c2,057$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.317850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks48c2,044$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.245151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Bucks49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Heat50c2,000$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.3910847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Heat50c1,885$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.234851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c9…974fbacked Heat51c1,742$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc533…6ae2backed Heat51c1,699$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc5…330abacked Bucks49c1,655$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Bucks50c1,645$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.671,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Bucks49c1,617$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.8458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Heat51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.388657%49 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef2…8bd7backed Bucks49c1,420$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat57c1,290$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.12,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Bucks46c1,288$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.4620051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7a…235bbacked Heat51c1,158$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Heat51c1,088$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.1120647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Bucks53c1,073$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.576746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Bucks51c1,056$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.3323348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Heat46c1,056$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.2438251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat49c1,046$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.943,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Bucks2c1,042$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.84170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.661,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Bucks52c1,014$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.2520352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b13…94d2backed Bucks50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Bucks1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%0 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db7…bf70backed Heat51c970$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Bucks53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Bucks48c933.33$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44818749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x231c…948ebacked Heat51c930$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Heat47c914.89$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.8981349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00a…a360backed Bucks50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Bucks48c900$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43216953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Bucks2c900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15981%1 W · 97 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310e…2455backed Bucks49c900$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat50c784$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3926,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Bucks51c778.81$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017046.5%79 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat47c756$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.685,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0aa…9b99backed Bucks49c647$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bucks54c621.44$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.5180653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat49c619.42$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.932,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0020…4610backed Heat51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.244854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Bucks36c579.6$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9924138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bucks29c552.7$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.121,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Heat48c523.54$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2418043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Bucks52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bucks52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25059140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Bucks50c468.21$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat47c457.18$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.312,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Heat56c447.29$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2935849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Heat47c427.22$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.4422945.9%105 W · 124 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Heat71c425.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4143269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e95…7db1backed Bucks49c420.3$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.951435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Bucks49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Bucks50c400.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Bucks50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9518147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Bucks53c378.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013837%51 W · 87 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd32…2914backed Bucks49c376$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b48…bb6ebacked Heat51c368$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Heat51c329.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.6928751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.