TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under53c576.01$304 inWon+$272.433,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under53c531$281 inWon+$249.572,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over47c511.54$240 inLost-$240.4224138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Over35c500$173 inLost-$172.822839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under39c444.86$174 inWon+$271.1623348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over46c283.52$131 inLost-$131.41,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over55c211$116 inLost-$115.8476249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under64c196.78$127 inWon+$69.872,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under56c176$99 inWon+$77.441,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over66c162.23$107 inLost-$106.9141556.9%236 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under52c157.12$81 inWon+$76.161,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under38c149.67$57 inWon+$92.914,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over66c147.98$98 inLost-$97.6720762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under49c121.22$59 inWon+$61.973,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over52c108.71$57 inLost-$573,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c97.82$46 inLost-$46.354,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063c…5e20backed Over59c87.21$52 inLost-$51.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over60c84.39$51 inLost-$50.631,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Over60c83.67$50 inLost-$5015149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under48c75.67$36 inWon+$39.351,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6330…1444backed Over52c72.54$38 inLost-$37.72195.3%1 W · 18 L-6.8wins-0.36per pick41cpaid-89.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over33c70.33$23 inLost-$23.211,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c69.57$36 inLost-$36.179,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over65c69.34$45 inLost-$4523657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over48c65.15$31 inLost-$30.9890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under44c61$27 inWon+$34.171,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Over45c53.3$24 inLost-$24.1865542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under37c51.87$19 inWon+$32.682,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Over33c50.23$17 inLost-$16.587233.3%24 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Over56c50$28 inLost-$2816141.6%67 W · 94 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over63c50$32 inLost-$31.569337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over50c50$25 inLost-$253,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Over66c45.52$30 inLost-$303464.7%22 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Over64c35.78$23 inLost-$22.7928536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under40c35.39$14 inWon+$21.232,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc6…095fbacked Under38c32.98$12 inWon+$20.4810545.7%48 W · 57 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Over51c32$16 inLost-$16.226026.7%16 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under40c25$10 inWon+$1552240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Under46c21.74$10 inWon+$11.7497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.