NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90acb621a168f363a32ab22a0125cd6e08a5eb50a61a8fa7593546a9e35aa33b

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,066 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0b22…ddcabacked Under	51c	7,551$3,851 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,699.76	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	52c	3,880$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a1…5e03backed Under	50c	3,783$1,892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,891.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b31…6d9dbacked Over	50c	3,766$1,883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,883	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	3,604$1,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,772.18	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf464…08a9backed Under	50c	3,366$1,683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,683	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47f3…7848backed Under	50c	2,688$1,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,343.24	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	50c	2,599$1,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,293.45	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5da…7ee2backed Over	50c	2,555$1,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,277.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3a…b65cbacked Under	50c	2,422$1,211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,211	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4acd…5eeabacked Over	50c	2,420$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcae…239ebacked Over	50c	2,401$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2162…1378backed Over	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Under	50c	2,000$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.64	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	49c	1,995$986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.71	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over	49c	1,725$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845.24	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over	52c	1,700$884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883.85	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77a7…3163backed Over	50c	1,688$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$844	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x693c…c1b5backed Under	50c	1,405$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f48…53a8backed Under	50c	1,266$633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$633	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Over	51c	1,256$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.75	231	47.6%110 W · 121 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over	50c	1,204$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.74	348	51.7%180 W · 168 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	904.02$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.66	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	49c	698.52$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.75	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	50c	687$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.6	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	16c	618.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.68	306	41.8%128 W · 178 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	50c	344.23$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.12	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	43c	338.53$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.47	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	51c	329.44$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.89	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under	49c	327.09$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.09	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	49c	322.8$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.63	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Over	51c	320.66$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.77	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	49c	301.31$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.51	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	51c	226.11$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.32	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x178d…43fcbacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1349…359bbacked Over	39c	199.59$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.14	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.28per pick	43cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Over	52c	148.74$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.03	181	43.1%78 W · 103 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Over	50c	113.93$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.12	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	660	46.4%306 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	54c	100.74$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.74	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	51c	98.03$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	76c	96.93$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.8	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed Under	49c	90.18$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.08	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	50c	87.58$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.02	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over	28c	82.25$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.02	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Over	49c	79.75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.08	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Under	61c	77.78$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.33	241	38.6%93 W · 148 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Over	51c	73.11$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.29	163	38.7%63 W · 100 L	-11.4wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	50c	52.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.43	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under	68c	51.56$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	50c	51$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.83	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Under	51c	49.12$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.12	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-6.1wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	49c	43$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.93	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7753…cf56backed Under	48c	32.5$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.9	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Under	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	191	66.5%127 W · 64 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under	49c	27.1$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.82	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	49c	24.57$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.53	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0cf…6639backed Over	51c	23.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Under	50c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cc9…c447backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5this page
1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 22.5No won
Bucks vs. HeatHeat won
Bucks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Bucks vs. Heat: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 215.5Over won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 218.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 220.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 221.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 9.5No won
Spread: Heat (-10.5)Bucks won
Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bucks won
Spread: Heat (-8.5)Bucks won
Spread: Heat (-9.5)Bucks won
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5No won
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event