NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x287aba6dd5981274d6a8896ef6c6d9778f4015841888aef5a9c6b98b41124ffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,712 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 772.32$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.88 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 46c | 589.01$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.34 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 402.17$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 45c | 391.11$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.11 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 312.92$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 304.01$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 298.95$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 54c | 233.17$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Over | 54c | 199.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c229backed Under | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 158.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…ce97backed Under | 45c | 152$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 131.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba52…fae1backed Under | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…2188backed Under | 40c | 128$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Over | 55c | 110.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 101.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 100.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7e0cbacked Over | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…dd51backed Over | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…a1b4backed Over | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4016backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 49.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 35c | 42.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 41.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 40.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 48c | 40.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…92d4backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Over | 51c | 35.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.36per pick | 41cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 45c | 34.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…29d6backed Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 36c | 29.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc3…7feabacked Over | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…aaf7backed Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 22.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf5…900abacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Bucks vs. HeatHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 215.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Bucks won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.