TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,927 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75e1…3ff3backed Under54c14,308$7,777 inWon+$6,530.78853.4%47 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c13,604$6,212 inLost-$6,212.19,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over34c826$285 inLost-$284.6724138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over46c800$364 inLost-$3643,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under55c612.66$336 inWon+$276.951,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under54c503.31$274 inWon+$229.583,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Over42c329.62$140 inLost-$139.9953149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c259.81$124 inLost-$123.614,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over50c200$100 inLost-$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9685…718ebacked Over48c199.99$97 inLost-$971668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under50c150$75 inWon+$751,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under54c138$74 inWon+$63.8854351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…a339backed Under52c105.18$55 inWon+$50.622152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over47c95.91$45 inLost-$44.991,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed Under51c86.47$44 inWon+$42.377439.2%29 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over48c80$38 inLost-$3890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under57c58.54$33 inWon+$25.172,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x020f…d93abacked Under56c46.58$26 inWon+$20.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7492…6568backed Under54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.0431955.2%176 W · 143 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under53c27$14 inWon+$12.594,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea5…c77bbacked Under73c20$15 inWon+$5.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a43…1405backed Under70c16.13$11 inWon+$4.842572%18 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.