NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee59a0411d43df5797a702e113a9373cfecf9efe08bf3397b64ffb23b6ce114d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Over | 51c | 41,234$21,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,029.41 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 49c | 20,000$9,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,217.47 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.98 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Over | 51c | 5,363$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Over | 51c | 4,833$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465 | 187 | 49.2%92 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 52c | 3,711$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.07 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.7 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…a339backed Under | 48c | 2,335$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.87 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.15 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 47c | 1,560$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.52 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,411$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 51c | 1,315$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 51c | 1,055$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Over | 52c | 1,038$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Under | 49c | 1,022$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.55 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 51c | 754.9$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 739$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 47c | 713.33$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.06 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 657.42$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 54c | 571.48$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.69 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Under | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 318.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 301.06$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 49c | 290$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked Over | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Under | 50c | 200.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 179.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 147.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 129.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 54c | 124.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 51c | 94.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 74.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 64.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc9…c447backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 48c | 54.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 47c | 54.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 49.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Over | 51c | 48.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 49c | 45.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 48c | 38.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 37.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed Over | 51c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Under | 49c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…b8efbacked Under | 50c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Bucks vs. HeatHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 215.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Bucks won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.