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NBA · resolved market

Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,371 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No67c1,200$798 inLost-$7981,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Yes34c997.64$339 inWon+$658.872835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes43c599.47$258 inWon+$341.79348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2691…f3b8backed Yes31c333.53$104 inWon+$229.534131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b80…663fbacked Yes33c304.73$100 inWon+$204.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked No57c173$99 inLost-$98.6115651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No68c169.5$116 inLost-$115.8483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No67c125.73$84 inLost-$84.2292058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked No57c105.26$60 inLost-$6093145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No69c84$58 inLost-$58.134,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd94a…4786backed Yes32c79.72$26 inWon+$54.213946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes33c59.71$20 inWon+$39.719031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No69c42$29 inLost-$291,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No71c40$28 inLost-$28.490357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No67c30$20 inLost-$20.160267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No57c26.49$15 inLost-$157022.9%16 W · 54 L-14.1wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-50.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No55c23.24$13 inLost-$12.7848751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No66c20.74$14 inLost-$13.6950648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No62c18.82$12 inLost-$11.6765762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No68c16.85$11 inLost-$11.4689853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.