Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec50dd987354b65799dae7d44a00e64f5b568dcb484e9f65b8d854932d7503a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 32,559$21,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,163.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 36c | 20,160$7,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,803.55 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 12,688$4,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,811.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 15c | 3,180$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.11 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 1c | 1,346$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 45c | 1,134$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.06 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 11c | 1,095$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 30c | 906.17$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 47c | 741.21$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.74 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…3c46backed No | 27c | 653.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abe…84cebacked Yes | 40c | 525$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56e…1c76backed Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 369.9$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 59c | 350$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 38c | 347.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.57 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed No | 56c | 342.24$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 38c | 339.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.13 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 12c | 299.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed No | 9c | 225.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed No | 37c | 217.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…3302backed Yes | 36c | 196.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 34c | 176.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 17c | 165.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 34c | 154.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…bbeebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 64c | 138.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 41c | 129.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 58c | 127$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Yes | 39c | 121.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 114$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 69c | 113.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 112.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 111$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 34c | 106.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 100.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 68c | 83.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Yes | 37c | 74.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 34c | 65.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 31c | 64.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 36c | 62.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 64c | 55.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 40c | 52.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9299…8f9cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed No | 78c | 51.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Yes | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Yes | 35c | 37.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 37c | 35.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7b…a65cbacked Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 67c | 33.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 63c | 32.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 42c | 30.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…fa76backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 67c | 29.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 27.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 72c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.