Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba580994bfb562c75dfc3af55cc1dea6b770aa501c51c316b5d69284cba62203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 11,200$7,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 6,283$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 3,712$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.48 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 65c | 1,591$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 35c | 1,283$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.05 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 851.23$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.04 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 563.1$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Yes | 27c | 462.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 73c | 416.96$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 70c | 271.82$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 8c | 263.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 75c | 207.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 36c | 195.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 31c | 154.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 31c | 147.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 21c | 107.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 96.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 77c | 94.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 20c | 86.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 79c | 82.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Yes | 31c | 80.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 52.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Yes | 31c | 52.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 28c | 36.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…307abacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.