Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6567a768ba6956de2382f33cbd88d88d53f3c942911b2ea8b94d48f41c87c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 12,281$6,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,269.77 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 58c | 8,359$4,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 47c | 2,340$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 2c | 2,003$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 29c | 1,999$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.29 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,310$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.93 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 48c | 1,207$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.53 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 792.97$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.48 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 25c | 750$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 48c | 299.89$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.57 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 43c | 225.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 52c | 213.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 53c | 200.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 6c | 200.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 40c | 189.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 62c | 129.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 45c | 117.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 49c | 99.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 64c | 98.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…a061backed Over | 50c | 89.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 48c | 83.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 38c | 77.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 49c | 68.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 62c | 64.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 320 | 60%192 W · 128 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…f27abacked Over | 80c | 62.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 61.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 39c | 56.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 38c | 48.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 63c | 46.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Under | 43c | 44.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 55c | 43.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 201 | 65.7%132 W · 69 L | +28.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 69c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 33.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 75c | 33.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Under | 64c | 30.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 36c | 30.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 70cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 75c | 29.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…8305backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 72c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 57c | 24.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…52cabacked Under | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.