UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon (Lightweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a7b09b8ad3b1536df625b609fd6eb3d93a9f1d51e8a646137e82b83567a412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noah Gugnonof Milos Janicic, Noah Gugnon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $470,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $558,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Milos Janicic | 50c | 158,741$79,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,370.36 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Noah Gugnon | 52c | 30,706$15,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,802.05 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Noah Gugnon | 47c | 29,190$13,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,538.72 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Noah Gugnon | 49c | 26,676$12,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,684.52 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Milos Janicic | 52c | 25,123$13,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,063.91 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Noah Gugnon | 51c | 22,500$11,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,074.98 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Milos Janicic | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Noah Gugnon | 48c | 18,000$8,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,360 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 17,295$8,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,682.91 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Milos Janicic | 49c | 15,287$7,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,490.56 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Noah Gugnon | 62c | 12,822$7,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 12,311$6,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,155.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 11,747$5,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,873.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Noah Gugnon | 49c | 11,666$5,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,892.91 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Noah Gugnon | 63c | 11,272$7,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Milos Janicic | 54c | 10,010$5,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,405.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…818bbacked Milos Janicic | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 9,200$4,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.22 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Noah Gugnon | 73c | 8,359$6,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Milos Janicic | 52c | 7,958$4,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,146.33 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Milos Janicic | 55c | 7,295$3,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Milos Janicic | 51c | 7,040$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Milos Janicic | 53c | 6,505$3,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,423.33 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 6,030$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.71 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Milos Janicic | 54c | 5,888$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.51 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Noah Gugnon | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…5ac7backed Noah Gugnon | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…f935backed Noah Gugnon | 48c | 5,000$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 4,933$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,463.36 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Milos Janicic | 51c | 4,224$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Noah Gugnon | 48c | 4,135$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.7 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…5c3dbacked Milos Janicic | 52c | 3,868$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Noah Gugnon | 50c | 3,585$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Milos Janicic | 51c | 3,577$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.59 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Noah Gugnon | 49c | 3,500$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.99 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Noah Gugnon | 48c | 3,310$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.06 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 3,231$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.57 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…e0fabacked Milos Janicic | 50c | 3,221$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Noah Gugnon | 49c | 3,100$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Milos Janicic | 48c | 3,000$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,956$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,918$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,821$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,751$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,724$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Noah Gugnon | 61c | 2,685$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.55 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Noah Gugnon | 63c | 2,420$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Noah Gugnon | 51c | 2,325$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,312$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.98 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Noah Gugnon | 69c | 2,269$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.59 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Noah Gugnon | 47c | 2,222$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.66 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…af24backed Noah Gugnon | 46c | 2,103$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Noah Gugnon | 52c | 2,081$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.17 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 2,053$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Milos Janicic | 50c | 2,016$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.09 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…00efbacked Noah Gugnon | 47c | 2,002$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…6664backed Milos Janicic | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Noah Gugnon | 48c | 1,962$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 1,958$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.96 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Noah Gugnon | 50c | 1,895$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 1,878$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Milos Janicic | 48c | 1,849$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…e455backed Noah Gugnon | 69c | 1,820$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Noah Gugnon | 46c | 1,775$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Noah Gugnon | 59c | 1,482$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.24 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Milos Janicic | 55c | 1,337$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.83 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…ce4cbacked Milos Janicic | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Noah Gugnon | 51c | 1,225$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.96 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…3c4cbacked Noah Gugnon | 47c | 1,182$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…884ebacked Noah Gugnon | 55c | 1,169$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.11 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Noah Gugnon | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Milos Janicic | 55c | 1,094$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Noah Gugnon | 55c | 1,090$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.67 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Milos Janicic | 53c | 1,078$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Noah Gugnon | 46c | 1,044$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.75 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Noah Gugnon | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Milos Janicic | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Milos Janicic | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…2bafbacked Milos Janicic | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Noah Gugnon | 51c | 980.8$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.09 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…3f29backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 971.76$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Milos Janicic | 50c | 967.27$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.29 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Milos Janicic | 50c | 948.19$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Noah Gugnon | 53c | 934.3$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Milos Janicic | 55c | 915.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Milos Janicic | 52c | 900$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Noah Gugnon | 55c | 882.34$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Milos Janicic | 52c | 849.99$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.99 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Milos Janicic | 47c | 822.25$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.46 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Noah Gugnon | 49c | 820.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…23c9backed Noah Gugnon | 47c | 817.39$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Noah Gugnon | 47c | 719.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.19 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Noah Gugnon | 51c | 683.48$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.91 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 645.22$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…65bdbacked Milos Janicic | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Milos Janicic | 35c | 602$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.29 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Noah Gugnon | 50c | 577.7$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.85 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Milos Janicic | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Noah Gugnon | 50c | 542.14$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.07 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon (Lightweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Milos Janicic win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Noah Gugnon win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.