TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Canadiens, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,159,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,205,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,159,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 786 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Lightning60c235,488$141,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,292.5715054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Canadiens40c110,732$44,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,439.126352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Canadiens40c80,023$32,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,813.2414650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Lightning60c68,470$41,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,082933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Lightning60c60,000$36,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,0008657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Lightning39c52,634$20,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,537.133450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens40c50,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lightning3c49,477$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.8813841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Canadiens57c42,204$24,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,093.672839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Canadiens40c37,868$15,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,720.848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c9…4b9cbacked Lightning58c33,849$19,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,632.432147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Canadiens61c31,200$19,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,16810146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canadiens43c30,906$13,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,679.621,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Lightning61c28,742$17,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,531.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens41c24,101$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,101.312236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens39c22,000$8,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,319.991,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Lightning59c21,761$12,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,838.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Canadiens61c20,280$12,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,909.218641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Lightning59c17,999$10,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,619.4313049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4608…d049backed Canadiens41c17,293$7,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,202.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens40c16,565$6,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,938.9627044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens40c15,632$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,392.3733151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Lightning4c15,463$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.3549851%254 W · 244 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Canadiens40c15,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.84161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Canadiens40c14,507$5,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,674.2328749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Lightning59c14,407$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5003354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Lightning59c14,395$8,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,480.8918853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens40c13,352$5,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,011.288845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Canadiens40c12,500$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,499.9312950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Canadiens49c12,394$6,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,274.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Canadiens40c11,764$4,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,058.527038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Lightning61c11,331$6,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,911.559260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Canadiens41c10,732$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,331.7132151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning59c10,593$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,25059450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc8…6ca6backed Lightning59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,900.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Canadiens42c10,000$4,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,849.996940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lightning60c9,833$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9002564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens57c9,572$5,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,146.161,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning60c9,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Canadiens39c8,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8502552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Canadiens40c7,300$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,38015448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Canadiens40c6,590$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9544323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5695…f8edbacked Canadiens40c5,620$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+47%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Lightning60c5,597$3,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3586448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Canadiens61c5,501$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.578056.3%45 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lightning59c5,084$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.5552050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c5…fb0fbacked Lightning40c5,041$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c23…0c74backed Canadiens40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning47c4,657$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.9475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Canadiens43c4,653$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.028345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Canadiens40c4,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7005446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Canadiens39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Canadiens41c3,659$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.544553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Lightning28c3,583$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.936538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens60c3,568$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.343,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Canadiens41c3,439$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.027244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Canadiens41c3,326$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.154568.9%31 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a3c…20cfbacked Canadiens40c3,250$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc8backed Lightning46c3,107$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.93757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens40c3,000$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.021,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Canadiens41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77013333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Canadiens40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8006841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed Canadiens41c2,921$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.393658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50083149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Canadiens41c2,444$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.965147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Canadiens45c2,435$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.0718452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Canadiens42c2,381$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.951145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8af…03c2backed Lightning30c2,335$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006750.7%34 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Canadiens43c2,300$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.1819759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked Canadiens42c2,300$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.821353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Canadiens40c2,240$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.0131848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Lightning39c2,226$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Canadiens41c2,018$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.972483.3%20 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+55%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Canadiens40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Canadiens39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Lightning59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.931346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Lightning38c1,937$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.933158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Lightning30c1,776$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.54226.2%11 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Canadiens43c1,725$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.0137754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Lightning59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Canadiens40c1,674$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.4233652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa40…9e37backed Canadiens40c1,670$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Canadiens61c1,578$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.7314946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed Canadiens41c1,532$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Canadiens39c1,520$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.23650%18 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Canadiens40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9005455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Canadiens48c1,452$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.0455446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Lightning48c1,409$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4424837.9%94 W · 154 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Lightning61c1,357$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.047761%47 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Canadiens68c1,326$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.9213850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Lightning60c1,290$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7744740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Lightning59c1,271$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505255.8%29 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning44c1,261$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.1289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lightning59c1,200$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.7376950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Lightning42c1,131$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.067755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8409…35ebbacked Canadiens41c1,111$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.651650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Lightning35c1,087$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.616434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x497a…650fbacked Lightning48c1,063$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.081145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37af…4b38backed Canadiens40c1,026$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed Lightning59c1,020$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6061030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-49.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.