NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0349aaf74d6c8d5bf1328df4b37c80ef9fa4ae60682345a1c4ff392af4246a1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens | 64c | 5,555$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.8 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed Lightning | 36c | 5,278$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Canadiens | 65c | 3,418$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.46 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Lightning | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning | 36c | 1,523$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.1 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Lightning | 26c | 1,486$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.74 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 35c | 1,214$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.79 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Canadiens | 76c | 1,207$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.74 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 35c | 1,188$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.72 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lightning | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Canadiens | 76c | 991.13$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 36c | 642.24$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Canadiens | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Lightning | 37c | 567.27$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.55 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Canadiens | 79c | 566.73$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…9d91backed Lightning | 37c | 546.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…4654backed Lightning | 35c | 518.23$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 78c | 449$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Lightning | 35c | 420$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Canadiens | 64c | 384$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Canadiens | 76c | 382$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Lightning | 37c | 364.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Canadiens | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…ff20backed Canadiens | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Lightning | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d0d4backed Canadiens | 80c | 271$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Lightning | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 64c | 241.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Canadiens | 74c | 238.7$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Canadiens | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Canadiens | 62c | 203.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Lightning | 36c | 167.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Canadiens | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…71bfbacked Canadiens | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Canadiens | 66c | 151.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Canadiens | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Canadiens | 65c | 130.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Lightning | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 77c | 126.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Lightning | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Canadiens | 65c | 123.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canadiens | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Canadiens | 65c | 104.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Canadiens | 80c | 100.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Canadiens | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Lightning | 35c | 95.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 76c | 91.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens | 63c | 85.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Lightning | 20c | 68.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Canadiens | 66c | 66.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Canadiens | 64c | 66.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Canadiens | 65c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Canadiens | 65c | 61.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Canadiens | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Canadiens | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Lightning | 36c | 58.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Lightning | 24c | 58.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lightning | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Canadiens | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Canadiens | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Lightning | 36c | 43.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Lightning | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Canadiens | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canadiens | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Canadiens | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Lightning | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Lightning | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Canadiens | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Canadiens | 64c | 26.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Canadiens | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…0738backed Canadiens | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Canadiens | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Canadiens | 66c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 3.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.