NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a589151c6d9cf7b50610731d0415f750f4cac5fa62aa07a3f0d5cb0c04c107c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 1,405$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.21 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 73c | 455$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Over | 27c | 411.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Over | 32c | 338.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 17c | 299.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 16c | 186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 26c | 147.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 29c | 106.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…e5d8backed Under | 71c | 61.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 71c | 57.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…4763backed Under | 74c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 3.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.