UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb16117650dd9a828679aae5eef20e9cffd6b209c089ca920f886eeeec74c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 62c | 1,948$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.81 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 50c | 1,910$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 38c | 1,579$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.95 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.59 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,115$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 58c | 829.16$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.65 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Yes | 54c | 593.48$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.48 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed No | 46c | 593.48$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.48 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 40c | 579$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 59c | 533.24$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.61 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked No | 43c | 455.81$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 63c | 300$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed No | 41c | 290.15$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…11ccbacked Yes | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed No | 37c | 181$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 107.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…be96backed Yes | 60c | 100.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Yes | 60c | 70.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…da99backed No | 44c | 68.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…0a9cbacked Yes | 62c | 61.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked No | 37c | 59.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 39c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 51c | 52.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…5501backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked No | 36c | 47.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 38c | 42.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…4920backed Yes | 65c | 38.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 50c | 37.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…92d9backed No | 41c | 33.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 241 | 61.8%149 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…5f94backed No | 41c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked No | 51c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Yes | 60c | 18.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…9514backed Yes | 64c | 17.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 60c | 16.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Navajo Stirling won
- Will Jan Blachowicz win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.