UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc980f77d56c291e2e532013cf4d59ad22cd30fa49bcdd8c7fefbde16528590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 64c | 36,479$23,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,339.65 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 36c | 34,727$12,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,228.27 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.89 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 37c | 625$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.75 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 70c | 287.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 62c | 280.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 38c | 277$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.74 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Under | 30c | 197.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Over | 64c | 165.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 65c | 153.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 34c | 150.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 65c | 125.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…5501backed Under | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 65c | 73.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 64c | 62.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 35c | 58.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…f13cbacked Under | 36c | 57.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…c7d9backed Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8c11backed Over | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 36c | 45.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50e…465fbacked Under | 37c | 40.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 31c | 32.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 64c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 63c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…5651backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…0cf5backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Navajo Stirling won
- Will Jan Blachowicz win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.