La Liga · resolved market
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2adc4fa6bd82861263cd2d58932e6142f3e0b79cdf5fe1e5550c2c74728bde5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 4,512$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.89 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 61c | 3,587$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.51 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 2,676$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.86 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 1,855$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.52 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 50c | 1,542$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 34c | 818.3$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.19 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -14.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…46babacked Over | 50c | 800.6$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 36c | 704.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.32 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc790…cbd2backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 66c | 343$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 332.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 39c | 327.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 49c | 168.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 91 | 67%61 W · 30 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 49c | 168.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…3e7dbacked Under | 51c | 142.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…5881backed Under | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 87.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…df2fbacked Under | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Over | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Over | 52c | 45.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…b34ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 270 | 55.2%149 W · 121 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 37.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 52c | 33.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 23.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5this page
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 0.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 1.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: UD Almería O/U 0.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: UD Almería O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)Málaga CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.