TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Over50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over51c6,906$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,406.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0005952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under49c3,921$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.384540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c3,713$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.73,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Under66c3,663$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c10…6482backed Under50c3,380$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Over50c3,337$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.251540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…c1efbacked Under46c3,332$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over50c2,991$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.272548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under50c2,122$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0612138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over57c2,115$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.074040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Under55c1,676$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.09425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over49c1,635$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.166761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over48c1,581$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.122,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Under56c1,494$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.741060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under55c1,473$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.1864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under3c1,251$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.01240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under50c1,163$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.4438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5504447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…3578backed Over66c1,061$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50016850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d7babacked Over53c946.32$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.321533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked Over50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Over50c827.62$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.81520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…0df5backed Under35c751.43$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-80.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4cd…a898backed Under64c746.07$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ec…ed41backed Under49c688.62$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under40c653.76$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Over10c600$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under49c584$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.162853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Over51c560.67$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.731662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over53c540$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.23548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2554465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over32c499.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.995024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over50c496.08$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under57c480$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.62729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under49c448.64$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9327138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over46c446.44$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.191,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under56c418.01$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.984751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Under51c408.17$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.176755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over39c407.85$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8512635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1963452.9%18 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+85.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over51c360.85$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8733938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under50c350.7$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3526445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under49c346.53$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.82846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under50c316.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9142046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d8…5be4backed Over40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under50c299.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fa…8c66backed Under51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5af4…183cbacked Under51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae0…836abacked Under51c294.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under50c284.18$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.097335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Under23c270.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc02a…b43fbacked Over41c243.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.953658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd19…3fb8backed Over10c233.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under38c227$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under50c211.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.361,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f0…1229backed Over32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc4…5a94backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Over10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+88.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x191a…b47dbacked Over10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick8cpaid+300%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under50c199.96$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.988458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5634…d81abacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c160.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under49c151.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2628755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.533047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Over50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under37c140$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.498844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Over50c134.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over46c108.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1627142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over39c102.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8210648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Over55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Under50c98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over51c97.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.84969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over61c82.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over45c79.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9934655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over50c72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfb5…8740backed Over50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352060%12 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c73…3a99backed Over50c66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfd…ba99backed Over44c65.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+73.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x473e…c0f6backed Over46c65.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.671723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over49c62.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0314755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over49c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.37247.2%34 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305952.5%31 W · 28 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf474…2775backed Under50c59.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-55.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under51c59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0915244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Over51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.825855.2%32 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0416…2977backed Under51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under51c58.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8315048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under68c58.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4921540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.