Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159f809a9ee52dbff6016687028324dc4d195f2f6951599635b296b55e69b5e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb585…53edbacked Under | 71c | 3,504$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 2,873$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Under | 27c | 2,289$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.84 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 2,273$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 17c | 2,215$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.44 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 1,254$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.23 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 32c | 1,084$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.54 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 71c | 1,056$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed Under | 54c | 1,000$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 50c | 746.26$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 61c | 622.15$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Under | 11c | 603.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 31c | 600$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 8c | 420.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 4cpaid | +842.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 50c | 369.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 61c | 359.48$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 354.89$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.22 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 39c | 341$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 61c | 304.92$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 65c | 281.5$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 49c | 254.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 63c | 253.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 37c | 199.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…d81abacked Under | 59c | 169.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Under | 33c | 148.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 67c | 148.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 66c | 142.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 28c | 137.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 134$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 114$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 31c | 104.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 64c | 101.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 30c | 100.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 71c | 93.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 36c | 86.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 42c | 78.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 69c | 75.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 71c | 70.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 31c | 64.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 61.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 79c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 73c | 56.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 18c | 56.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…cf5fbacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Over | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 30c | 48.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923a…e723backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 29c | 44.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 43.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 70c | 42.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 68c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Under | 69c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad4…5654backed Under | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 56c | 25.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Under | 70c | 15.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 70c | 14.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.