UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x601fa22e860b15ea25e45392509c2e5b3af0b59c1258805f604e32a3f2debd2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diyar Nurgozhayof Bruno Lopes, Diyar Nurgozhay
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $334,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $348,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 121,236$73,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,904.28 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b9…dd41backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 50,436$20,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,318.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 43,731$26,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,355.04 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 43,180$17,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,174.19 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 41,500$16,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,599.99 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Bruno Lopes | 39c | 16,300$6,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,357 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 59c | 15,731$9,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,449.6 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 12,500$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.94 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Bruno Lopes | 39c | 11,054$4,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,311.15 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…d0a2backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 10,794$4,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,325.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 8,509$3,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Bruno Lopes | 39c | 8,150$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 7,779$4,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,111.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 59c | 6,862$4,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Bruno Lopes | 6c | 6,394$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 6,337$3,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.38 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 59c | 5,888$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.08 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Bruno Lopes | 39c | 5,822$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270.61 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bruno Lopes | 39c | 5,130$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.57 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Bruno Lopes | 42c | 5,050$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Bruno Lopes | 40c | 5,010$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Bruno Lopes | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bruno Lopes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 62c | 4,839$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.71 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 58c | 4,353$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.16 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 4,096$2,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.52 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 3,788$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.03 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 3,279$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.69 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 3,110$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 3,090$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.06 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 3,090$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…1cedbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 58c | 3,028$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.95 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 71c | 2,815$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.9 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bruno Lopes | 38c | 2,516$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.25 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bruno Lopes | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked Bruno Lopes | 39c | 2,461$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.8 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…4699backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 62c | 2,286$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.31 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bruno Lopes | 22c | 2,212$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.88 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Bruno Lopes | 24c | 1,980$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Bruno Lopes | 42c | 1,788$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.88 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…707fbacked Bruno Lopes | 40c | 1,714$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked Bruno Lopes | 40c | 1,670$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…a0a9backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 1,670$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Bruno Lopes | 31c | 1,612$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.72 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 1,560$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.99 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 1,500$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Bruno Lopes | 30c | 1,264$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.29 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Bruno Lopes | 40c | 1,252$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.24 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Bruno Lopes | 33c | 1,215$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.81 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…cc6bbacked Bruno Lopes | 42c | 1,177$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb73…1e52backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 73c | 1,103$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.84 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 1,079$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.39 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…1883backed Bruno Lopes | 29c | 1,074$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…b821backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 58c | 1,050$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…2e99backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 975.6$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…5db9backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 975.6$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +277.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 974.88$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.95 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…7f84backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 59c | 868.66$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…2665backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeff…a43ebacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 780.51$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 745.57$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked Bruno Lopes | 41c | 695.12$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…610bbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 75c | 666.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…4e52backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 655.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…e5aebacked Bruno Lopes | 38c | 638.25$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Bruno Lopes | 23c | 631$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.13 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 66c | 626.17$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 618.03$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.03 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 616.83$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…77f5backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 68c | 599.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 538.33$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa8…ea63backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 520$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 512.2$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 61c | 500.77$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bruno Lopes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 493.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Bruno Lopes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 62c | 487.73$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.34 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…2814backed Bruno Lopes | 40c | 472.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Bruno Lopes | 42c | 461.19$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…6443backed Bruno Lopes | 39c | 438.47$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…1bd3backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 59c | 425.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Bruno Lopes | 39c | 423.79$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Diyar Nurgozhay | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 390$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed Diyar Nurgozhay | 60c | 375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Diyar Nurgozhay win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.