UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfccea3426e19a45de3f05ccc8c8aece73b1510baf312e972f7c934386f63eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8372…5223backed Yes | 33c | 9,012$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 69c | 5,331$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.92 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 71c | 3,235$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.06 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Yes | 28c | 2,750$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 69c | 1,229$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.13 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 1,070$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.68 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 68c | 418.13$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 32c | 415$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 307$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 72c | 290.38$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 278.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed No | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 55c | 77.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…5027backed No | 73c | 75.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Diyar Nurgozhay won
- Will Diyar Nurgozhay win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.